What is Traffic Prediction? Traffic prediction is the process of forecasting traffic conditions, such as congestion and travel times, using historical traffic data.
Papers and Code
Jun 17, 2025
Abstract:Ensuring packet-level communication quality is vital for ultra-reliable, low-latency communications (URLLC) in large-scale industrial wireless networks. We enhance the Local Deadline Partition (LDP) algorithm by introducing a CNN-based dynamic priority prediction mechanism for improved interference coordination in multi-cell, multi-channel networks. Unlike LDP's static priorities, our approach uses a Convolutional Neural Network and graph coloring to adaptively assign link priorities based on real-time traffic, transmission opportunities, and network conditions. Assuming that first training phase is performed offline, our approach introduced minimal overhead, while enabling more efficient resource allocation, boosting network capacity, SINR, and schedulability. Simulation results show SINR gains of up to 113\%, 94\%, and 49\% over LDP across three network configurations, highlighting its effectiveness for complex URLLC scenarios.
* This paper has been submitted to IEEEGLOBE2025 on April 15, 2025
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Jun 14, 2025
Abstract:Accurate driving behavior modeling is fundamental to safe and efficient trajectory prediction, yet remains challenging in complex traffic scenarios. This paper presents a novel Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) framework that captures human-like decision-making by inferring diverse reward functions, enabling robust cross-scenario adaptability. The learned reward function is utilized to maximize the likelihood of output by the encoder-decoder architecture that combines Mamba blocks for efficient long-sequence dependency modeling with graph attention networks to encode spatial interactions among traffic agents. Comprehensive evaluations on urban intersections and roundabouts demonstrate that the proposed method not only outperforms various popular approaches in prediction accuracy but also achieves 2 times higher generalization performance to unseen scenarios compared to other IRL-based method.
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Jun 11, 2025
Abstract:Scenario-based testing is essential for validating the performance of autonomous driving (AD) systems. However, such testing is limited by the scarcity of long-tailed, safety-critical scenarios in existing datasets collected in the real world. To tackle the data issue, we propose the Adv-BMT framework, which augments real-world scenarios with diverse and realistic adversarial interactions. The core component of Adv-BMT is a bidirectional motion transformer (BMT) model to perform inverse traffic motion predictions, which takes agent information in the last time step of the scenario as input, and reconstruct the traffic in the inverse of chronological order until the initial time step. The Adv-BMT framework is a two-staged pipeline: it first conducts adversarial initializations and then inverse motion predictions. Different from previous work, we do not need any collision data for pretraining, and are able to generate realistic and diverse collision interactions. Our experimental results validate the quality of generated collision scenarios by Adv-BMT: training in our augmented dataset would reduce episode collision rates by 20\% compared to previous work.
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Jun 11, 2025
Abstract:Traffic data imputation is fundamentally important to support various applications in intelligent transportation systems such as traffic flow prediction. However, existing time-to-space sequential methods often fail to effectively extract features in block-wise missing data scenarios. Meanwhile, the static graph structure for spatial feature propagation significantly constrains the models flexibility in handling the distribution shift issue for the nonstationary traffic data. To address these issues, this paper proposes a SpatioTemporal Attention Mixture of experts network named STAMImputer for traffic data imputation. Specifically, we introduce a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework to capture latent spatio-temporal features and their influence weights, effectively imputing block missing. A novel Low-rank guided Sampling Graph ATtention (LrSGAT) mechanism is designed to dynamically balance the local and global correlations across road networks. The sampled attention vectors are utilized to generate dynamic graphs that capture real-time spatial correlations. Extensive experiments are conducted on four traffic datasets for evaluation. The result shows STAMImputer achieves significantly performance improvement compared with existing SOTA approaches. Our codes are available at https://github.com/RingBDStack/STAMImupter.
* 10 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. Extended version of paper accepted at
IJCAI 2025
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Jun 10, 2025
Abstract:Traffic simulators are widely used to study the operational efficiency of road infrastructure, but their rule-based approach limits their ability to mimic real-world driving behavior. Traffic intersections are critical components of the road infrastructure, both in terms of safety risk (nearly 28% of fatal crashes and 58% of nonfatal crashes happen at intersections) as well as the operational efficiency of a road corridor. This raises an important question: can we create a data-driven simulator that can mimic the macro- and micro-statistics of the driving behavior at a traffic intersection? Deep Generative Modeling-based trajectory prediction models provide a good starting point to model the complex dynamics of vehicles at an intersection. But they are not tested in a "live" micro-simulation scenario and are not evaluated on traffic engineering-related metrics. In this study, we propose traffic engineering-related metrics to evaluate generative trajectory prediction models and provide a simulation-in-the-loop pipeline to do so. We also provide a multi-headed self-attention-based trajectory prediction model that incorporates the signal information, which outperforms our previous models on the evaluation metrics.
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Jun 08, 2025
Abstract:Traffic prediction is a critical task in spatial-temporal forecasting with broad applications in travel planning and urban management. Adaptive graph convolution networks have emerged as mainstream solutions due to their ability to learn node embeddings in a data-driven manner and capture complex latent dependencies. However, existing adaptive graph learning methods for traffic forecasting often either ignore the regularization of node embeddings, which account for a significant proportion of model parameters, or face scalability issues from expensive graph convolution operations. To address these challenges, we propose a Regularized Adaptive Graph Learning (RAGL) model. First, we introduce a regularized adaptive graph learning framework that synergizes Stochastic Shared Embedding (SSE) and adaptive graph convolution via a residual difference mechanism, achieving both embedding regularization and noise suppression. Second, to ensure scalability on large road networks, we develop the Efficient Cosine Operator (ECO), which performs graph convolution based on the cosine similarity of regularized embeddings with linear time complexity. Extensive experiments on four large-scale real-world traffic datasets show that RAGL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of prediction accuracy and exhibits competitive computational efficiency.
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Jun 12, 2025
Abstract:Lane-topology prediction is a critical component of safe and reliable autonomous navigation. An accurate understanding of the road environment aids this task. We observe that this information often follows conventions encoded in natural language, through design codes that reflect the road structure and road names that capture the road functionality. We augment this information in a lightweight manner to SMERF, a map-prior-based online lane-topology prediction model, by combining structured road metadata from OSM maps and lane-width priors from Road design manuals with the road centerline encodings. We evaluate our method on two geo-diverse complex intersection scenarios. Our method shows improvement in both lane and traffic element detection and their association. We report results using four topology-aware metrics to comprehensively assess the model performance. These results demonstrate the ability of our approach to generalize and scale to diverse topologies and conditions.
* 4 pages, 3 figures, Accepted at RSS 2025 Workshop -
RobotEvaluation@RSS2025
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Jun 10, 2025
Abstract:Traffic Intersections are vital to urban road networks as they regulate the movement of people and goods. However, they are regions of conflicting trajectories and are prone to accidents. Deep Generative models of traffic dynamics at signalized intersections can greatly help traffic authorities better understand the efficiency and safety aspects. At present, models are evaluated on computational metrics that primarily look at trajectory reconstruction errors. They are not evaluated online in a `live' microsimulation scenario. Further, these metrics do not adequately consider traffic engineering-specific concerns such as red-light violations, unallowed stoppage, etc. In this work, we provide a comprehensive analytics tool to train, run, and evaluate models with metrics that give better insights into model performance from a traffic engineering point of view. We train a state-of-the-art multi-vehicle trajectory forecasting model on a large dataset collected by running a calibrated scenario of a real-world urban intersection. We then evaluate the performance of the prediction models, online in a microsimulator, under unseen traffic conditions. We show that despite using ideally-behaved trajectories as input, and achieving low trajectory reconstruction errors, the generated trajectories show behaviors that break traffic rules. We introduce new metrics to evaluate such undesired behaviors and present our results.
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Jun 09, 2025
Abstract:Video Question Answering (VideoQA) aims to answer natural language questions based on the given video, with prior work primarily focusing on identifying the duration of relevant segments, referred to as explicit visual evidence. However, explicit visual evidence is not always directly available, particularly when questions target symbolic meanings or deeper intentions, leading to significant performance degradation. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel task and dataset, $\textbf{I}$mplicit $\textbf{V}$ideo $\textbf{Q}$uestion $\textbf{A}$nswering (I-VQA), which focuses on answering questions in scenarios where explicit visual evidence is inaccessible. Given an implicit question and its corresponding video, I-VQA requires answering based on the contextual visual cues present within the video. To tackle I-VQA, we propose a novel reasoning framework, IRM (Implicit Reasoning Model), incorporating dual-stream modeling of contextual actions and intent clues as implicit reasoning chains. IRM comprises the Action-Intent Module (AIM) and the Visual Enhancement Module (VEM). AIM deduces and preserves question-related dual clues by generating clue candidates and performing relation deduction. VEM enhances contextual visual representation by leveraging key contextual clues. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our IRM in I-VQA tasks, outperforming GPT-4o, OpenAI-o3, and fine-tuned VideoChat2 by $0.76\%$, $1.37\%$, and $4.87\%$, respectively. Additionally, IRM performs SOTA on similar implicit advertisement understanding and future prediction in traffic-VQA. Datasets and codes are available for double-blind review in anonymous repo: https://github.com/tychen-SJTU/Implicit-VideoQA.
* Preprint
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Jun 06, 2025
Abstract:Accurately estimating the impact of road maintenance schedules on traffic conditions is important because maintenance operations can substantially worsen congestion if not carefully planned. Reliable estimates allow planners to avoid excessive delays during periods of roadwork. Since the exact increase in congestion is difficult to predict analytically, traffic simulations are commonly used to assess the redistribution of the flow of traffic. However, when applied to long-term maintenance planning involving many overlapping projects and scheduling alternatives, these simulations must be run thousands of times, resulting in a significant computational burden. This paper investigates the use of machine learning-based surrogate models to predict network-wide congestion caused by simultaneous road renovations. We frame the problem as a supervised learning task, using one-hot encodings, engineered traffic features, and heuristic approximations. A range of linear, ensemble-based, probabilistic, and neural regression models is evaluated under an online learning framework in which data progressively becomes available. The experimental results show that the Costliest Subset Heuristic provides a reasonable approximation when limited training data is available, and that most regression models fail to outperform it, with the exception of XGBoost, which achieves substantially better accuracy. In overall performance, XGBoost significantly outperforms alternatives in a range of metrics, most strikingly Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Pinball loss, where it achieves a MAPE of 11% and outperforms the next-best model by 20% and 38% respectively. This modeling approach has the potential to reduce the computational burden of large-scale traffic assignment problems in maintenance planning.
* 15 pages, 2 figures, submitted as conference paper to ICCL 2025
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