What is Traffic Prediction? Traffic prediction is the process of forecasting traffic conditions, such as congestion and travel times, using historical traffic data.
Papers and Code
May 08, 2025
Abstract:In this paper, we propose PADriver, a novel closed-loop framework for personalized autonomous driving (PAD). Built upon Multi-modal Large Language Model (MLLM), PADriver takes streaming frames and personalized textual prompts as inputs. It autoaggressively performs scene understanding, danger level estimation and action decision. The predicted danger level reflects the risk of the potential action and provides an explicit reference for the final action, which corresponds to the preset personalized prompt. Moreover, we construct a closed-loop benchmark named PAD-Highway based on Highway-Env simulator to comprehensively evaluate the decision performance under traffic rules. The dataset contains 250 hours videos with high-quality annotation to facilitate the development of PAD behavior analysis. Experimental results on the constructed benchmark show that PADriver outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on different evaluation metrics, and enables various driving modes.
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May 07, 2025
Abstract:A novel approach to detect road surface anomalies by visual tracking of a preceding vehicle is proposed. The method is versatile, predicting any kind of road anomalies, such as potholes, bumps, debris, etc., unlike direct observation methods that rely on training visual detectors of those cases. The method operates in low visibility conditions or in dense traffic where the anomaly is occluded by a preceding vehicle. Anomalies are detected predictively, i.e., before a vehicle encounters them, which allows to pre-configure low-level vehicle systems (such as chassis) or to plan an avoidance maneuver in case of autonomous driving. A challenge is that the signal coming from camera-based tracking of a preceding vehicle may be weak and disturbed by camera ego motion due to vibrations affecting the ego vehicle. Therefore, we propose an efficient method to compensate camera pitch rotation by an iterative robust estimator. Our experiments on both controlled setup and normal traffic conditions show that road anomalies can be detected reliably at a distance even in challenging cases where the ego vehicle traverses imperfect road surfaces. The method is effective and performs in real time on standard consumer hardware.
* Accepted to the IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV), 2025
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May 04, 2025
Abstract:Multivariate long-term time series forecasting is critical for applications such as weather prediction, and traffic analysis. In addition, the implementation of Transformer variants has improved prediction accuracy. Following these variants, different input data process approaches also enhanced the field, such as tokenization techniques including point-wise, channel-wise, and patch-wise tokenization. However, previous studies still have limitations in time complexity, computational resources, and cross-dimensional interactions. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel CNN Autoencoder-based Score Attention mechanism (CASA), which can be introduced in diverse Transformers model-agnosticically by reducing memory and leading to improvement in model performance. Experiments on eight real-world datasets validate that CASA decreases computational resources by up to 77.7%, accelerates inference by 44.0%, and achieves state-of-the-art performance, ranking first in 87.5% of evaluated metrics.
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May 03, 2025
Abstract:Driven by the exponential growth in data traffic and the limitations of Radio Frequency (RF) networks, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC) has emerged as a promising solution for high data rate communication. However, the inherently dynamic nature of OWC environments resulting from user mobility, and time-varying user demands poses significant challenges for enhanced and sustainable performance. Energy efficiency (EE) is a critical metric for the sustainable operation of next generation wireless networks. Achieving high EE in dynamic OWC environments, especially under time-varying user distributions and heterogeneous service requirements, remains a complex task. In this work, we formulate a discrete-time EE optimisation problem in a dynamic OWC to maximise energy efficiency through determining user connectivity and power allocation. Solving this problem in real time is computationally demanding due to the coupling of user association and power allocation variables over discrete time slots. Therefore, we propose a Probabilistic Demand Prediction and Optimised Power Allocation (PDP-OPA) framework which predicts user arrivals, departures, and traffic demands. Based on these predictions, the framework proactively determines AP-user associations and allocates power dynamically using a Lagrangian-based optimisation strategy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed PDP-OPA significantly enhances system performance, providing solutions close to the optimal ones. The proposed framework improves energy efficiency, sum rate, and bit error rate (BER) compared to distance-based user association and uniform power allocation, validating its effectiveness for real time and adaptive resource management in dynamic OWC systems.
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May 04, 2025
Abstract:Cut-in maneuvers in high-speed traffic pose critical challenges that can lead to abrupt braking and collisions, necessitating safe and efficient lane change strategies. We propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) framework to integrate lateral evidence with safety assessment models, thereby predicting lane changes and ensuring safe cut-in maneuvers effectively. Our proposed framework comprises three key probabilistic hypotheses (lateral evidence, lateral safety, and longitudinal safety) that facilitate the decision-making process through dynamic data processing and assessments of vehicle positions, lateral velocities, relative distance, and Time-to-Collision (TTC) computations. The DBN model's performance compared with other conventional approaches demonstrates superior performance in crash reduction, especially in critical high-speed scenarios, while maintaining a competitive performance in low-speed scenarios. This paves the way for robust, scalable, and efficient safety validation in automated driving systems.
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May 01, 2025
Abstract:This paper introduces an AI-enabled, interaction-aware active safety analysis framework that accounts for groupwise vehicle interactions. Specifically, the framework employs a bicycle model-augmented with road gradient considerations-to accurately capture vehicle dynamics. In parallel, a hypergraph-based AI model is developed to predict probabilistic trajectories of ambient traffic. By integrating these two components, the framework derives vehicle intra-spacing over a 3D road surface as the solution of a stochastic ordinary differential equation, yielding high-fidelity surrogate safety measures such as time-to-collision (TTC). To demonstrate its effectiveness, the framework is analyzed using stochastic numerical methods comprising 4th-order Runge-Kutta integration and AI inference, generating probability-weighted high-fidelity TTC (HF-TTC) distributions that reflect complex multi-agent maneuvers and behavioral uncertainties. Evaluated with HF-TTC against traditional constant-velocity TTC and non-interaction-aware approaches on highway datasets, the proposed framework offers a systematic methodology for active safety analysis with enhanced potential for improving safety perception in complex traffic environments.
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May 01, 2025
Abstract:The proliferation of connected vehicles within the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) ecosystem presents critical challenges in ensuring scalable, real-time, and privacy-preserving traffic management. Existing centralized IoV solutions often suffer from high latency, limited scalability, and reliance on proprietary Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, creating significant barriers to widespread deployment, particularly in dynamic and privacy-sensitive environments. Meanwhile, integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) in vehicular systems remains underexplored, especially concerning prompt optimization and effective utilization in federated contexts. To address these challenges, we propose the Federated Prompt-Optimized Traffic Transformer (FPoTT), a novel framework that leverages open-source LLMs for predictive IoV management. FPoTT introduces a dynamic prompt optimization mechanism that iteratively refines textual prompts to enhance trajectory prediction. The architecture employs a dual-layer federated learning paradigm, combining lightweight edge models for real-time inference with cloud-based LLMs to retain global intelligence. A Transformer-driven synthetic data generator is incorporated to augment training with diverse, high-fidelity traffic scenarios in the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) format. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that FPoTT, utilizing EleutherAI Pythia-1B, achieves 99.86% prediction accuracy on real-world data while maintaining high performance on synthetic datasets. These results underscore the potential of open-source LLMs in enabling secure, adaptive, and scalable IoV management, offering a promising alternative to proprietary solutions in smart mobility ecosystems.
* Preprint version; submitted for academic peer review
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Apr 28, 2025
Abstract:Traffic flow prediction is a critical component of intelligent transportation systems, yet accurately forecasting traffic remains challenging due to the interaction between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. Standard deep learning models often struggle with these challenges because their architectures inherently smooth over fine-grained fluctuations while focusing on general trends. This limitation arises from low-pass filtering effects, gate biases favoring stability, and memory update mechanisms that prioritize long-term information retention. To address these shortcomings, this study introduces a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates both long-term trend and short-term fluctuation information using two input features processed in parallel, designed to capture complementary aspects of traffic flow dynamics. Further, our approach leverages attention mechanisms, specifically Bahdanau attention, to selectively focus on critical time steps within traffic data, enhancing the model's ability to predict congestion and other transient phenomena. Experimental results demonstrate that features learned from both branches are complementary, significantly improving the goodness-of-fit statistics across multiple prediction horizons compared to a baseline model. Notably, the attention mechanism enhances short-term forecast accuracy by directly targeting immediate fluctuations, though challenges remain in fully integrating long-term trends. This framework can contribute to more effective congestion mitigation and urban mobility planning by advancing the robustness and precision of traffic prediction models.
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Apr 24, 2025
Abstract:This study proposes an integrated machine learning framework for advanced traffic analysis, combining time-series forecasting, classification, and computer vision techniques. The system utilizes an ARIMA(2,0,1) model for traffic prediction (MAE: 2.1), an XGBoost classifier for accident severity classification (100% accuracy on balanced data), and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for traffic image classification (92% accuracy). Tested on diverse datasets, the framework outperforms baseline models and identifies key factors influencing accident severity, including weather and road infrastructure. Its modular design supports deployment in smart city systems for real-time monitoring, accident prevention, and resource optimization, contributing to the evolution of intelligent transportation systems.
* 5 pages,10 figures
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Apr 23, 2025
Abstract:Trajectory prediction is a fundamental technology for advanced autonomous driving systems and represents one of the most challenging problems in the field of cognitive intelligence. Accurately predicting the future trajectories of each traffic participant is a prerequisite for building high safety and high reliability decision-making, planning, and control capabilities in autonomous driving. However, existing methods often focus solely on the motion of other traffic participants without considering the underlying intent behind that motion, which increases the uncertainty in trajectory prediction. Autonomous vehicles operate in real-time environments, meaning that trajectory prediction algorithms must be able to process data and generate predictions in real-time. While many existing methods achieve high accuracy, they often struggle to effectively handle heterogeneous traffic scenarios. In this paper, we propose a Subjective Intent-based Low-latency framework for Multiple traffic participants joint trajectory prediction. Our method explicitly incorporates the subjective intent of traffic participants based on their key points, and predicts the future trajectories jointly without map, which ensures promising performance while significantly reducing the prediction latency. Additionally, we introduce a novel dataset designed specifically for trajectory prediction. Related code and dataset will be available soon.
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